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Author Topic: 'Politicians lie; numbers don't.'  (Read 761 times)
pyroclasticlux
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refloexion
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« on: September 24, 2008, 07:03:12 AM »



here's the opening to an article i'm curious to see some responses for... 
(the bold text was added by me)


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If you're wondering why a formerly honorable man like John McCain would build his presidential campaign around issues that are simultaneously beside-the-point, trivial, and dishonest (sex education for kindergartners, lipstick on pigs), the numbers presented here may help to solve that mystery. Since the conventions ended, McCain has mired the presidential race in dishonest trivia because he doesn't want it to focus on what voters say is the most important issue this year: the economy.

There is no secret about any of this. The figures below are all from the annual Economic Report of the President, and the analysis is primitive. Nevertheless, what these numbers show almost beyond doubt is that Democrats are better at virtually every economic task that is important to Republicans.


this encompasses data from a few decades (1959 - 2007) and is quite relevant even after the election is over, but i figured it'd be something new to consider when casting one's vote this year.

the article can be found here: http://www.slate.com/id/2199810/


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Scott
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2008, 01:13:00 PM »



here's the opening to an article i'm curious to see some responses for... 
(the bold text was added by me)


Quote
If you're wondering why a formerly honorable man like John McCain would build his presidential campaign around issues that are simultaneously beside-the-point, trivial, and dishonest (sex education for kindergartners, lipstick on pigs), the numbers presented here may help to solve that mystery. Since the conventions ended, McCain has mired the presidential race in dishonest trivia because he doesn't want it to focus on what voters say is the most important issue this year: the economy.

There is no secret about any of this. The figures below are all from the annual Economic Report of the President, and the analysis is primitive. Nevertheless, what these numbers show almost beyond doubt is that Democrats are better at virtually every economic task that is important to Republicans.


this encompasses data from a few decades (1959 - 2007) and is quite relevant even after the election is over, but i figured it'd be something new to consider when casting one's vote this year.

the article can be found here: http://www.slate.com/id/2199810/




I haven't had a chance to read this yet today but I will later on tonight. Interesting. :]
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"The important thing is not to stop questioning; curiosity has its own reason for existing." -- Albert Einstein
Scott
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2008, 03:01:20 PM »

Very interesting.

Finally, as economist Greg Mankiw points out in his blog, reacting to a similar calculation by Alan Blinder (both of them former chairs of the president's Council of Economic Advisers), correlation is not causation. Maybe economic statistics are better when the president is a Democrat for reasons having nothing to do with the president's skill in handling the economy. My own feeling about that is that as long as the pattern continues, who cares why? Correlation will do just fine.

As cool as that sounds, correlation isn't the best thing to base voting on. Don't get me wrong, Obama still has my vote but not because of statistics. You can't forget that during certain republican presidential terms, there were things that happened that were outside of their control. It's not just black and white.

However, it would be an interesting experiment to see whether those things matter in general. It's possible that the way Democrats do things is a step up from the way Republicans do, but I think each election (and the runners therein) is its own animal. That is to say, unless they honestly promise nothing significantly different from the last president.
All in all, good find. :]
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"The important thing is not to stop questioning; curiosity has its own reason for existing." -- Albert Einstein
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